March 2, 2015

Playing The Currency Market This Week

By Marc Chandler via Economy Watch
The US dollar traded higher against most of the major currencies over the past week.  No thanks to Yellen's testimony before Congress.  Market participants took away from her a reduced chance of a mid-year rate hike.
We disagree with the interpretation, seeing her comments as 1) playing down low inflation as transitory and 2) seeing the global influence being overall balanced as the decline in oil prices and interest rates offset the dollar's appreciation. We continue to expect the FOMC to drop its "patient" forward guidance at its mid-March meeting. 

Charting Central Banks Monetary Madness

A Short Parable On The Drama Of Current Monetary Policies
"Madness In Great Ones Must Not Unwatch'd Go." (Hamlet, act III, scene I)

March 1, 2015

Gone The Easy Oil, Where Do We Go from Here?

By Andrew Topf,    

In 2008, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin stunned the oil market with a bold prediction: With the world economy growing at 5 percent a year, oil demand would grow with it, outpacing supply, thus lifting the oil price from $147 to over $200 a barrel. 

The former chief economist at CIBC World Markets was so convinced of his thesis, he wrote a book about it. "Why the World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller" forecast a sea change in the global economy, all driven by unsustainably high oil prices, where domestic manufacturing is reinvigorated at the expense of seaborne trade and people's choices become driven by the ever-increasing prices of fossil fuels. 

Oil Crash To Hit Latin America and Caribbean Regions

(version in Español and Português)
The plunge in world oil prices—from $105 to about $50 per barrel since mid-2014—has been a boon for oil-importing countries, while presenting challenges for oil exporters.

February 28, 2015

"Audit the Fed"? We've Already Done That (Well, Kind of)

"Audit the Fed"? We've Already Done That (Well, Kind of)

Our conclusion: The Fed is not in control of the economy -- here's why

By Elliott Wave International

If there's one thing the Federal Reserve Board of the United States is not known for, it's assertive language. After all the obfuscation and verbal sidestepping, Fed speak is usually as easy to comprehend as Marlon Brando's Godfather character Don "Mumbles" Corleone.

A Look Back at the 1993 World Trade Center Bombing Investigation

By Scott Stewart, Stratfor Global Intelligence  

On the morning of Feb. 26, 1993, a massive truck bomb ripped a hole almost 100 feet across the B-2 level of the parking garage beneath the World Trade Center's North Tower. The blast wave was so powerful that it penetrated five stories of the reinforced concrete building. In addition to causing structural damage, the explosion destroyed or heavily damaged hundreds of vehicles parked in the garage. That such a powerful explosion killed only six people is nothing short of miracle, for the attackers had a goal much more grandiose.