After rebounding from contraction in November last year the global manufacturing sector finds itself on the brink of stagnation again. The GDP-weighted manufacturing PMI that I calculate for the major economies fell to 50.8 in February from 51.5 in January, but is still higher than the 50.3 I recorded in December last year.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI’s fall to 52.4 in February from 54.1 in January contributed 0.6 points to the fall in the GDP-weighted PMI. Excluding the U.S., growth in the manufacturing sector in the rest of the world remained basically unchanged.Although still indicating contraction at 49.0 the Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI shows that the manufacturing sector in the region is stabilizing.
Growth in Greater China is accelerating, with my seasonally adjusted CFLP Manufacturing PMI up to 51.9 from 51.0 in January, while the manufacturing sector in Taiwan is at long last growing again. The growth outlook in the other BRICS countries has turned for the better, with South Africa’s PMI surging to 57.9 from 43.2 in January while Brazil’s PMI rose to 51.4 from 50.6.
Manufacturing PMI | Direction | Rate of Change | |||
| Country | Feb-12 | Jan-12 | Dec-11 | ||
| U.S.***** | 52.4 | 54.1 | 53.1 | Growing | Slower |
| Eurozone* | 49.0 | 48.8 | 46.9 | Contracting | Slower |
| Germany* | 50.2 | 51.0 | 48.4 | Stagnating | From growing |
| France* | 50.0 | 48.5 | 48.9 | Stagnating | From contracting |
| Greece* | 37.7 | 41.0 | 42.0 | Contracting | Faster |
| Italy* | 47.8 | 46.8 | 44.3 | Contracting | Slower |
| Spain* | 45.0 | 45.1 | 43.7 | Contracting | Faster |
| Ireland* | 49.7 | 48.3 | 48.6 | Contracting | Slower |
| U.K.* | 51.2 | 52.0 | 49.7 | Growing | Slower |
| Japan* | 50.5 | 50.7 | 50.2 | Growing | Slower |
| Australia* | 51.3 | 51.6 | 50.2 | Growing | Slower |
| Emerging Economies | |||||
| Brazil* | 51.4 | 50.6 | 49.1 | Growing | Faster |
| China** | 51.0 | 50.5 | 50.3 | Growing | Faster |
| China SA**** | 51.9 | 51.0 | 50.5 | Growing | Faster |
| Czech* | 50.5 | 48.4 | 49.2 | Growing | From contracting |
| Poland* | 50.0 | 52.2 | 48.8 | Stagnating | From growing |
| Turkey* | 49.6 | 51.7 | 52.0 | Contracting | From growing |
| India* | 56.6 | 57.5 | 54.2 | Robust | Slower |
| Russia* | 50.7 | 50.8 | 51.6 | Growing | Slower |
| Taiwan* | 52.7 | 48.9 | 47.1 | Growing | From contracting |
| RSA*** | 57.9 | 53.2 | 49.4 | Robust | Faster |
| Global**** | 50.8 | 51.5 | 50.3 | Growing | Slower |
Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Hodings****; ISM*****.
Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Holdings****; ISM*****.
Sources: Markit*; Li & Fung**; Kagiso***; Plexus Holdings****; ISM*****.
About The Author - Prieur du Plessis is chairman and founder of South African-based Plexus Asset Management, and he writes a blog at Investment Postcards from Cape Town. (EconMatters author archive here.)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the author's own, and do not necessarily reflect those of EconMatters.
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