In recent updates I have been projecting a series of ABCDE waves to take the Bull market to post March 2009 highs in the 1425-1445 ranges. The recent pullback was expected as what I was calling a “D wave” pullback, with an E wave to come. These final 5th waves or E waves can be extension waves or relatively benign, hence causing difficulty in forecasting the upper ranges.
In the case of the SP 500 index, we have had a strong rally from the 1267 lows in early June to 1409 highs so far (The C wave highs) and recently a pullback into the 1390’s (The D wave). This next leg up should carry the market indices towards the 1440 2008 interim highs which begat the last 5 wave down leg of the Bear cycle that ended at 666 on the SP 500. A case of down the mountain and up the mountain if you will since the 2008 highs to current pricing conditions at 1404.
Once this E wave completes in the 1425-1445 ranges (With an outside shot at an extension blast to 1495) we should expect a fairly significant correction of the entire move from March of 2009. This final rally leg could top anytime between Aug 13th and August 22nd as I last updated, with potential to spill over into early September.
A close over 1409 will confirm the “E wave” has begun in earnest and you may want to buckle up, as it could be the final blast before some rains begin to pour in the fall.
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Courtesy Dave Banister via Chris Vermeulen (EconMatters author archive here)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the author's own, and do not necessarily reflect those of EconMatters.
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