February 22, 2013

The Pullback Memo

By EconMatters


Pullbacks…pullbacks….are we talking about Pullbacks?

That`s all I heard for two straight months, “Gee everyone is waiting for a pullback to get in on the rally”. Well you asked for it, now you got it! But you better not be too picky about waiting for some exact perfect 7% correction because that probably ain`t happening. 

We are in the midst of the strongest four months of the investing cycle for each of the last four years. Basically, everyone and their uncle go long assets until late April before the annual summer selloff. Don`t expect this year to be any different. 

March 1st New Capital & Front Running

The way I look at it new money comes into the market March 1st which is next Friday, so any window for a pullback has 5 days to occur, and less than that because everybody front runs the monthly 401k money that comes into the market the first of every month, and is usually good for a major Risk On day. 

So investors have 4 days for a pullback, you get the idea, Thursday`s mid-day selloff was the pullback. There isn`t going to be any ideal 7% pullback so all those who missed the rally can conveniently get right in with the rally that they missed for the first two months of the year.

You think this stuff just happens randomly?

There are no do-overs in markets! What were you thinking, haven`t you been paying attention the last four years? You start going long in November of the previous year and you stay long until option`s expiration in April, then you sell, wait for the summer sell-off when some crisis in Europe or Downgrade is the end of the world, and after the sell-off, then everybody buys back for the “Money Manager Make Their Numbers Yearly Close”! 

We are working here!

Now get with the program, this isn`t the airport where we wait for passengers to board! This is the first four months of the year, and damnit we are making our numbers regardless. We don`t care how steep the freaking charts look, we are going to make them look even steeper. 

Nothing stops the rally, we don`t go backward, we just keep going higher till mid-April, Got it? Good, now quit your hoping, praying for the 7% pullback, we don`t have time for this crap! 

We don`t have time for no stinkin 7% pullbacks!

There are no 7% pullbacks in the first four months of the year when we are making are damn numbers. That would be stupid, we would have to start all over again, we don`t have time for that crap, we are working here! 

Have we set new highs yet? I didn`t think so…

We will give you your damn pullback at the end of April after we have set new highs in all the market indexes. So don`t ask “Are we going to pullback yet”? No we are not going to pullback, you will know when it is time for the pullback by checking the damn calendar!  

Here is the damn memo…..

Just so you know since nobody seems to pass around the memo anymore we run up everything for the first four months as high as we can, hopefully around 11%, then we short the market, and if we are lucky the damn thing goes negative for the year and we make another 11%, then we ramp it up at the end of the year back to the same 11% we know we can hit, and a little more if we are really good. 

So the market benchmark the S&P 500 is up 12% for the year, and of course we beat the benchmark dumbass we are professionals, just add the 11%+11%+12%=34% we blow away the damn benchmark and everybody wants to invest with us and we make more damn money cause now we got more AUM! 

So now you have the damn memo, study it, memorize it, live it and for God`s Sake quit askin about the damn pullback!


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