Since the beginning of the year, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) has been trading within a range of 150 or so points and has tested or broken the 50-day moving average a total of 11 times, but has yet to test support at the 200. If it can’t hold support at the 2100 level, we might finally be looking at just that, a test of the 200-day MA. The S&P 500 is up only 2.69% year-to-date.
The EMU Index ((EZU)), or the European Economic and Monetary Union, fell below the 50-day moving average after news of the IMF exiting bailout talks with Greece emerged. Given that a deal seems implausible at the moment, we might be looking at a test of the 200-day MA as well.The index is up 8.20% for all of 2015.
The Russian Index ((RSX)) had been hit pretty hard by the US-EU-imposed sanctions, but after a nice bounce-back following the dramatic sell-off, the index looks like it may form a new uptrend line. It must first test support at the 18 level. If it can bounce from there…..and if Putin will stop provoking and antagonizing the West…this index could have room to run, as it is extremely cheap. RSX is up an impressive 24.13% in 2015 after a harsh 2014 where it saw a 50% decline.
After a stronger US dollar, civil war affecting just about the whole region, and crashing crude oil prices took its toll on the Middle East Index ((GULF)), the index may be looking at new lows in the near future. Supply is key, and that is still a net negative for the index. Despite the headwinds, the index is only down 1.24% since the beginning of the year.
The Latin American market ((ILF)) broke down in May after an impressive recovery from its March lows. It broke through its 50-day and now finds itself right above support at the 30 level. It has moved concurrently with the crashing commodities market and is still struggling to hold any support. The index has recorded a loss of 5.09% this year.
Africa’s market ((AFK)) has managed to grind higher for most of 2014. But continued upheaval in Northern Africa, coupled with a weak global economy, has finally dampened Africa’s run. It is down 3.89% for 2015 after a tough last month.
The Chinese, Indian and Southeast Asian markets have broken down over the last two months. Led by a plunge in the Chinese markets, the index now finds itself below both moving averages. We could be in for another move higher if the index can’t get above resistance at the 46 level. The Pacific x-Japan index ((EPP)) is up only 2.62% in 2015.
Japan ((EWJ)) is holding onto gains after the BOJ unexpectedly eased monetary policy in the beginning of the year. Japan is up 15.30% YTD, the second best performing market.