June is off with a bang, and a very busy week in the macro economic calendar, both globally and in the US, which culminates with the latest "most important ever" payrolls report, one which will surely be closely watched by a Fed which may hike as soon as a few weeks from now (but probably won't).
It starts this morning in Europe where we get the final May manufacturing PMI readings for the Euro area and also regionally (which as noted earlier came a little weaker than expected as a result of continued deterioration in German data offset by peripheral strength), followed by the PCE core and deflator readings which also were well worse than expected. Wealso get the final May manufacturing PMI along with construction spending and also ISM manufacturing and prices paid.
Tuesday starts in Japan where we are due to get cash earnings and monetary base data. In the European session we’ll get German unemployment along with the all important advanced May Euro Area CPI print. Euro area PPI is also due along with UK mortgage approvals. In the US on Tuesday we’ve got the ISM NY to look forward to along with factory orders, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism survey and finally vehicle sales data.
In Asia on Wednesday we’ve got the May services and composite PMI prints to start things off for Japan and China. We’ll then get these also for the Euro area before the ECB meeting around midday. US data is highlighted by the April trade balance which will be important in the context of Q2 GDP, while we also get an early payrolls indicator with the May ADP employment change print. Also in the US on Wednesday, we’ll get the final composite and services PMI’s along with the May ISM non-manufacturing reading and also the Fed’s Beige Book.
There’s more Central Bank action on Thursday with the BoE due to meet, while the only notable data release in the morning will be French unemployment. Nonfarm productivity, unit labour costs and initial jobless claims are the highlights in the US on Thursday. In Asia on Friday we’ve got the Conference Board leading indicator for Japan due up. In Europe the preliminary Q1 GDP report for the Euro area will be closely watched.
This all comes before the all important US payrolls print on Friday afternoon with current consensus running at 225k (+2k on April). We’ll also get the usual associated employment indicators including average hourly earnings and unemployment prints. Fedspeak wise we’ve got Rosengren, Evans, Tarullo and Dudley all due to speak while on the ECB side Liikanen, Mersch and Knot are expected. Of course, Greece headlines will continue with the June 5th IMF payment due on Friday.
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All the key weekly events in table format:
And here is Goldman's detailed breakdown of the week ahead:
In DMs, highlights of next week include US Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM, PCE, Unemployment and Trade Balance; Eurozone MP Decision, CPI and GDP; MP Decision in UK and Australia; DM PMIs; Australia GDP.
- [Monday] US ISM and PCE; Germany CPI; DM Manufacturing PMIs.
- [Tuesday] Eurozone CPI; Australia MP Decision.
- [Wednesday] US Trade Balance; Eurozone MP Decision; Australia GDP; DM Composite and Services PMIs.
- [Thursday] UK MP Decision.
- [Friday] US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment; Eurozone GDP.
In EMs, highlights of next week include MP Decisions in India, Poland, Brazil and Mexico; Minutes in Chile and Colombia; EM PMIs including China.
- [Monday] Chile Minutes; EM Manufacturing PMIs including China.
- [Tuesday] India MP Decision.
- [Wednesday] MP Decisions in Poland, Romania and Brazil; EM Composite and Services PMIs.
- [Thursday] Mexico MP Decision; South Korea GDP.
- [Friday] Colombia Minutes; Hungary GDP; Chile Economic Activity.
Monday, June 1
- Events: Speeches by Fed’s Rosengren and ECB’s Liikanen.
- United States | [MAP 5] ISM Manufacturing (May): GS 51.5, consensus 52, previous 51.5
- United States | [MAP 1] Personal Spending (Apr): GS 0.2%, consensus 0.20%, previous 0.40%
- United States | Personal Income (Apr): GS 0.2%, consensus 0.30%, previous 0.00%
- United States | PCE Deflator YoY (Apr): GS (0.1% mom), consensus 0.20% (0.10% mom), previous 0.30% (0.20% mom)
- United States | PCE Core YoY (Apr): GS (0.17% mom), consensus 1.40% (0.20% mom), previous 1.30% (0.10% mom)
- Germany | CPI EU Harmonized YoY (May P): GS 0.70%, consensus 0.60% (0.00% mom), previous 0.30% (-0.10% mom)
- DMs | Manufacturing PMI (May F): US (previous 53.8); Canada (previous 49); Eurozone (GS 52.3, consensus 52.3, previous 52.3); Denmark (previous 53); France (GS 49.3, previous 49.3); Italy (previous 53.8); Germany (GS 51.4, consensus 51.4, previous 51.4); Norway (consensus 49.5, previous 50.5); Spain (previous 54.2); Sweden (previous 55.7); Switzerland (consensus 47, previous 47.9); UK (consensus 53, previous 51.9); Japan ( previous 50.9)
- EMs | Manufacturing PMI (May F): China (GS 50.3, consensus 50.2, previous 50.1); India (previous 51.3); Indonesia (previous 46.7); South Korea (previous 48.8); Taiwan (previous 49.2); Czech Republic (previous 54.7); Hungary (previous 51); Poland (previous 54); Russia (previous 48.9); South Africa (previous 45.4); Turkey (previous 48.5); Brazil (previous 46); Mexico (previous 53.8)
- Indonesia | CPI YoY (May): GS 7.0%, consensus 7.00% (0.35% nsa mom), previous 6.79% (0.36% nsa mom)
- Thailand | CPI YoY (May): GS -0.9%, consensus -1.10% (0.30% nsa mom), previous -1.04% (0.02% nsa mom)
- Chile | Minutes from MP Decision
- Mexico | IMEF Manufacturing Index SA (May): Previous 51.4
- Peru | CPI YoY (May): GS 2.90% (0.10% mom), previous 3.02% (0.39% mom)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Construction Spending; Sweden Retail Sales; Japan Capital Spending and Vehicle Sales; Australia TD Securities Inflation, Business Indicators and Building Approvals [EM] Argentina Tax Collection; Trade Balance in South Korea, Hungary and Brazil; Mexico Remittances.
Tuesday, June 2
- Events: Speeches by ECB’s Nouy and Visco.
- United States | Factory Orders (Apr): GS 0.4%, consensus -0.20%, previous 2.10%
- Eurozone | CPI Core YoY (May A): GS 0.70%, consensus 0.70%, previous 0.60%
- Australia | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Cash Rate at 2.00%, in line with consensus).
- India | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp cut in the in the repo rate to 7.25%, in line with consensus.
- South Korea | CPI YoY (May): GS 0.3%, consensus 0.40% (0.20% mom), previous 0.40% (0.10% mom)
- Brazil | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Apr): GS (-1.40% mom), previous -3.50%
- Also interesting: [DM] US Wards Vehicle Sales and ISM New York; Eurozone PPI; Germany Unemployment; Sweden CA; UK Construction and Money Supply; Japan Total Cash Wages; Australia CA; New Zealand Terms of Trade Index; Singapore PMI [EM] Hong Kong Retail Sales; South Korea CA; Romania PPI.
Wednesday, June 3
- Events: Speeches by Fed’s Evans, ECB’s Draghi and BoJ’s Kuroda and Harada; US Fed Releases Beige Book; Chile Quarterly Inflation Report; Riksbank Financial Stability Report; OECD Economic Outlook.
- United States | [MAP 3] ADP Employment Change (May): GS 185K, consensus 190K, previous 169K
- United States | [MAP 2] Trade Balance (Apr): GS -$43.5B, consensus -$44.2B, previous -$51.4B
- United States | ISM Non-Manf. Composite (May): GS 57.0, consensus 57, previous 57.8
- Eurozone | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Main Refinancing Rate at 0.05%, in line with consensus).
- Australia | [MAP 5] GDP SA QoQ (1Q): GS 0.30%, consensus 0.60% (2.10% yoy), previous 0.50% (2.50% yoy)
- DMs | Composite PMI (May F): US (previous 56.1); Eurozone (GS 53.4, consensus 53.4, previous 53.4); France (GS 51, previous 51); Germany (GS 52.8, consensus 52.8, previous 52.8); Italy (previous 53.9); Spain (previous 59.1); United Kingdom (GS 57.8, previous 58.4); Japan (previous 50.7)
- DMs | Services PMI (May F): US (previous 56.4); Eurozone (GS 53.3, consensus 53.3, previous 53.3); France (GS 51.6, previous 51.6); Germany (GS 52.9, consensus 52.9, previous 52.9); Italy (previous 53.1); Spain (previous 60.3); Sweden (previous 53.9); United Kingdom (consensus 59.1, previous 59.5); Japan (previous 51.3)
- EMs | Composite PMI (May F): China (previous 51.3); India (previous 52.5); Russia (previous 50.8); Brazil (previous 44.2)
- EMs | Services PMI (May F): China (previous 52.9); India (previous 52.4); Russia (previous 50.7); Brazil (previous 44.6)
- Poland | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Base Rate at 1.50%, in line with consensus). We think the MPC will maintain its neutral stance and reiterate the message that the easing cycle is over, owing to solid growth and inflation turnaround. We expect little changes in rate guidance or the tone, especially only one month ahead of the forecast revision and publication of the next Inflation Report.
- Turkey | CPI YoY (May): GS 8.20%, consensus 8.17% (0.95% mom), previous 7.91% (1.63% mom)
- Brazil | MP Decision: We expect at 50bp hike in the Selic Rate to 13.75%, in line with consensus, and for the MPC to likely leave the door open for another hike at the July 29 meeting. We assess only a small probability to either a smaller +25bp rate hike, and/or explicit language indicating the end of the tightening cycle at this meeting.
- Mexico | [MAP 4] Gross Fixed Investment (Mar): GS 6.00%, previous 1.30%
- Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications; Eurozone Unemployment and Retail Sales; Italy Unemployment; UK Nationwide House Px and BRC Sales Monitor; New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price [EM] Hong Kong and South Africa PMI; Indonesia Consumer Confidence; Hungary Retail Sales; Turkey Core Inflation; Brazil IC-Br Commodity Price Index; Chile Quarterly Inflation Report.
Thursday, June 4
- Events: Speeches by Fed’s Tarullo, ECB’s Knot, Liikanen and Mersch, BoJ’s Shirai and Hungary Central Bank’s Nagy.
- United States | Nonfarm Productivity (1Q F): GS -3.3%, consensus -2.90%, previous -1.90%
- United States | Unit Labor Costs (1Q F): GS 6.4%, consensus 6.00%, previous 5.00%
- United Kingdom | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Bank Rate at 0.50%, in line with consensus).
- South Korea | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (1Q F): GS 2.6%, previous 2.40% (0.80% sa qoq)
- Romania | GDP YoY (1Q P): Previous 4.30% (1.60% qoq)
- Russia | CPI YoY (May): GS 15.9%, consensus 15.90% (0.40% mom), previous 16.40% (0.50% mom)
- Mexico | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Overnight Rate at 3.00%) and for the MPC to reiterate a broadly neutral bias going forward. We do not expect to see major changes in terms of forward guidance.
- Also interesting: [DM] France ILO Unemployment Rate; Retail PMI in France and Italy; UK New Car Registrations; Australia Trade Balance and Retail Sales [EM] Russia Consumer Prices; Core Inflation; Ukraine Official Reserve Assets; Romania Retail Sales; Colombia Exports.
Friday, June 5
- Events: Speeches by Fed’s Dudley and ECB’s Liikanen and Mersch.
- United States | [MAP 5] Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May): GS 210K, consensus 218K, previous 223K
- United States | [MAP 5] Unemployment Rate (May): GS 5.4%, consensus 5.40%, previous 5.40%
- United States | Average Hourly Earnings YoY (May): GS 0.3%, consensus 2.20% (0.20% mom), previous 2.20% (0.10% mom)
- Eurozone | [MAP 5] GDP SA QoQ (1Q P): GS (0.4% qoq), consensus 0.40% (1.00% sa yoy), previous 0.40% (1.00% sa yoy)
- Norway | Industrial Production MoM (Apr): Previous 1.50%
- Spain | Industrial Output SA YoY (Apr): Previous 2.90% (4.80% nsa yoy)
- Philippines | CPI YoY (May): Previous 2.20% (0.20% nsa mom)
- Taiwan | CPI YoY (May): GS -0.6%, previous -0.80%
- Hungary | [MAP 5] GDP NSA YoY (1Q F): Previous 3.40% (0.60% sa qoq)
- Hungary | [MAP 4] Industrial Production WDA YoY (Apr): Previous 9.00% (2.60% sa mom)
- Ukraine | CPI YoY (May): Previous 60.90% (14.00% mom)
- Chile | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Apr): GS 2.60%, previous 1.60% ((r) -0.50% mom)
- Colombia | Minutes from MP Decision
- Colombia | CPI YoY (May): GS 4.40% (0.30% mom), consensus 4.47% (0.32% mom), previous 4.64% (0.54% mom)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Consumer Credit; Canada Unemployment; France Trade Balance; Germany Factory Orders; Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves; Japan Leading and Coincident Indexes [EM] Trade Balance Malaysia; Philippines Bank Lending; Czech Republic Retail Sales; Hungary Retail Average Wages; Russia Official Reserve Assets; Mexico Consumer Confidence.
Source: Deutsche Bank, BofA and Goldman