Oil prices have fallen back slightly in the wake of the Brexit vote
In our interim global assumptions released on June 24th following the UK's vote to leave the EU, we lowered our 2016 oil price forecast from US$43/b to US$40/b. Yet the current downward trend in prices has little to do with the Brexit vote, which, given the rapid recovery in global stock prices, seems to have had only a short-lived and marginal impact on market sentiment towards most risky assets. As such, although we maintain that prices will dip in the third quarter, before a more sustained recovery takes hold towards the end of the year, risks to our 2016 price forecast are to the upside.
Brent will slide in 2019-20, after peaking in 2018
Some commodities stand out but prices will generally remain depressed in 2016
© EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle