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September 11, 2017

Gold Breaks Through Resistance Level & Continues Rising



Several important factors are affecting demand for gold, and the price of gold accordingly. For starters, tensions with North Korea are looming large. Various experts are cautioning that the price of gold could surge to record levels – as high as $10,000 per ounce, owing to an imminent war with North Korea. Whether this comes to pass or not is debatable, however speculators are not wasting any time, and are shifting resources from equities markets to safe-haven commodities like gold. The international community has been shaken by the sabre rattling in North Korea, what with talk of hydrogen bombs being fitted onto intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Since August 2017, the price of gold has appreciated by upwards of 5%, and it continues rising. By September 3, 2017, gold broke through $1,325 per ounce, and looks set to continue these strong gains.



Strong gains in gold prices over the short-term

Gold now enjoys positive gains over 30 days, 6 months and 1 year with figures of approximately 4.47%, 7.52%, and 0.18% respectively. The gold price performance (in annual percentage change) reflects strongest in USD in 2017. The current annual change is 15.2% in USD, 1.7% in EUR, 9.3% in GBP, and 7.9% in INR. Of course, these gains will pale in comparison to the expected rise in the gold price if tensions break out on the Korean peninsula. By Friday morning 1 September 2017, the price of gold surged to a 10-month high against the greenback, but only to a 2-month high against the CNY and the EUR.

Recall that the USD has been performing poorly for the year to date, with the vaunted DXY (US Dollar Index) down approximately 9% in 2017. Gold is regarded as a safe-haven asset that rallies when geopolitical uncertainty increases. Various factors have combined to create the perfect storm for gold, notably a ratcheting up of tensions with the North Koreans, massive and widespread devastation with hurricanes in the US, and the failure of Trump doctrine in US political circles. Gold has clearly reversed course and is looking increasingly bullish.

The price of the precious metal hit an all-time high of $1,920 and has found it difficult to ascend back to that level. Nonetheless, the prevailing price of approximately $1,325 per ounce is certainly a sound platform for the precious metal to launch from. Gold reacts positively to negative economic factors. That the Fed and other central banks around the world (the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan etc.) have not indicated any desire to raise interest rates in coming weeks, is reason enough for gold to seize upon that and rally. The Jackson Hole conference provided the catalyst necessary for gold to break through the critical $1,300 per ounce price level, and continue its rapid ascent.

How can traders gauge the performance of gold prices?

War talk with North Korea is nothing new. The rogue regime continually tests the US’ resolve by firing intercontinental ballistic missiles across country, or over the islands of Japan. The latest furore has upped the stakes, and speculators are buying into gold, hand over fist. Gold mining companies, gold stocks, and gold ETFs are effective indicators of trader sentiment vis-à-vis demand for gold. The biggest gold fund (GLD) known as the SPDR Gold Trust is a useful barometer of gold demand. The performance of this fund is positive for the year to date with gains of approximately 9.10%, and a 1-month gain of 2.00%. Since inception, this fund has generated returns of 8.21%. GLD is currently trading at $126.05 per share



Weiss Finance trading experts believe that there is a possible swing from equities markets to safe-haven assets like gold and the JPY on the horizon. “One can never ignore the effects of war games, war talk, and increasing geopolitical tensions on economic matters. If we have learned nothing else from history, we do know this: Markets do not like uncertainty and nothing brings more uncertainty than the threat of nuclear war or hydrogen bombs. North Korea’s rogue regime is unstable, hostile and armed to the teeth. Global security is clearly being challenged by this backward regime, and it is time for big players like the US, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia to step in and apply the necessary pressure to rein in this dictator hell-bent on destruction.”

Since gold is a dollar-denominated asset, its demand is inversely related to the strength of the USD. Given that the USD has been depreciating in 2017, gold demand has been increasing. The equivalent value of gold in foreign currency is significantly cheaper now with a stronger EUR, JPY, GBP and others.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the author's own, and do not necessarily reflect those of EconMatters.

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Item Reviewed: Gold Breaks Through Resistance Level & Continues Rising Rating: 5 Reviewed By: Econ Matters