By Sober Look
The latest Reuters poll is showing 24 out of 43 economists projecting the first rate hike in the US by June of next year. The futures market is pricing liftoff by September. Citi's latest analysis puts it in December. And all of these forecasts are running way behind the so-called Taylor Rule, which is suggests that the Fed Funds rate should already be at 1.5%.
November 25, 2014
By Lance Roberts at Street Talk Live
A couple of weeks ago in the weekly newsletter I discussed the series of events behind the decline of the market in October and the subsequent surge.
"The chart below shows the series of events that has propelled the markets higher in recent days as a massive short covering rally, on declining volume, has taken place.
The chart below is an hourly chart of the market over the last month. It shows the flip-flop of Fed President Bullard, the end of QE, the impact of 12 day old news that Japan’s GPIF was upping their allocation to equities which was followed by a surprise announcement that Japan would double down on their failing QE program. That is how you concoct an equity rally thatforces short positions to liquidate 'en masse'.
When the U.S. Federal Reserve first mentioned in 2013 the prospect of a cutback in its bond buying program, markets had a “taper tantrum.” Many emerging markets saw large increases in volatility, even though outflows from their domestic markets were small and short-lived. Now the Fed has ended its bond buying and is looking ahead to rate hikes, and portfolio flows continue to arrive at the shores of emerging market economies. So everything’s fine, right? Not quite.
By George Friedman, Stratfor Global Intelligence
Nuclear talks with Iran have failed to yield an agreement, but the deadline for a deal has been extended without a hitch. What would have been a significant crisis a year ago, replete with threats and anxiety, has been handled without drama or difficulty. This new response to yet another failure to reach an accord marks a shift in the relationship between the United States and Iran, a shift that can’t be understood without first considering the massive geopolitical shifts that have taken place in the Middle East, redefining the urgency of the nuclear issue.
November 24, 2014
By Leo Kolivakis for Pension Pulse
Koh Gui Qing and Jason Subler of Reuters report, China surprises with interest rate cut to spur growth:
China cut interest rates unexpectedly on Friday, stepping up efforts to support the world's second-biggest economy as it heads towards its slowest expansion in nearly a quarter of a century.