November 22, 2014

Petrobras Scandal Could Be A Watershed Moment for Brazil Oil

By Nick Cunningham, Oilprice.com  via Wolf Street.

The concluding act in the legal saga of a former Brazilian oil and mining tycoon kicked off this week. Eike Batista’s trial began in Rio de Janeiro on November 18, where he faces charges of insider trading. If convicted Batista faces up to 13 years in prison.

Debunking 10 Myths of Momentum Investing

Momentum strategies seek out stocks that have done well in the past (winners), though they can also short stocks with past poor returns (losers). The idea is to take advantage of the return premium from favoring winners over losers. Such strategies have their share of critics, however. Among the criticisms are that momentum is not exploitable by the average investor and that such strategies are more volatile.

November 21, 2014

Central Banks Go All In Pushing Stocks To No Man's High


By Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge 

Despite the knee-trembling awesomeness of a double-whammy promise of liquidity, US equity markets ended the week on a decidedly down note. The realization that Draghi's all talk (no impact on US stocks) and PBOC's move is not a liquidity surge and has limited impact on the economy left stocks tumbling once the opening OPEX levels had printed. The USD rose notably on the day after EUR plunged under 1.24 on Draghi (USD +0.9% on the week). Despite USD strength, gold rose 1% (as did Silver) on the week, rising for the 3rd week in a row for the first time in 4 months (and the 3rd Friday surge in a row). Oil rose 1% on the week, breaking an 8-week losing streak but Copper prices fell around 0.3% on the week, having given back the kneejerk gains post-PBOC today. Treasury yields dropped after kneejerking higher on PBOC. 30Y at 3.01% had its 2nd lowest weekly close since May 2013. VIX melted down into the close to 13.01. Late-day buying panic lifts stocks off their lows leaving Dow & S&P at all-time recordest highs of all-time ever in history (as small caps closed red).

The UAE and Saudi War on the Muslim Brotherhood Could Be Trouble for the U.S.

By Stratfor Global Intelligence 

The UAE Cabinet approved a list of 83 designated terrorist organizations on Saturday, including al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Much more significant, though, was the inclusion of many Muslim organizations based in the West that are believed to be allied with the Muslim Brotherhood movement. Prominent among them are two American Muslim groups: the Council on American Islamic Relations and the Muslim American Society.

November 20, 2014

Social Transformation, Economy and Stock Market


Every production phase or civilization or other human invention goes through a so called transformation process. Transitions are social transformation processes that cover at least one generation (= 25 years). In this article I will use one such transition to demonstrate the position of our present civilization and its possible effect on stock exchange rates.