Europe is set to be the engine of growth for this flourishing renewable energy technology, followed closely by China and others
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25 October 2019
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 COPENHAGEN – Offshore wind power will expand impressively over the
next two decades, boosting efforts to decarbonise energy systems and
reduce air pollution as it becomes a growing part of electricity supply,
according to an International Energy Agency report published today.
Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 is
the most comprehensive global study on the subject to date, combining
the latest technology and market developments with a specially
commissioned new geospatial analysis that maps out wind speed and
quality along hundreds of thousands of kilometres of coastline around
the world. The report is an excerpt from the flagship World Energy Outlook 2019, which will be published in full on 13 November.
The IEA finds that global offshore wind capacity may increase
15-fold and attract around $1 trillion of cumulative investment by 2040.
This is driven by falling costs, supportive government policies and
some remarkable technological progress, such as larger turbines and
floating foundations. That’s just the start – the IEA report finds that
offshore wind technology has the potential to grow far more strongly
with stepped-up support from policy makers.
Europe has pioneered offshore wind technology, and the region is
positioned to be the powerhouse of its future development. Today,
offshore wind capacity in the European Union stands at almost 20
gigawatts. Under current policy settings, that is set to rise to nearly
130 gigawatts by 2040. However, if the European Union reaches its
carbon-neutrality aims, offshore wind capacity would jump to around 180
gigawatts by 2040 and become the region’s largest single source of
electricity.
An even more ambitious vision – in which policies drive a big
increase in demand for clean hydrogen produced by offshore wind – could
push European offshore wind capacity dramatically higher.
China is also set to play a major role in offshore wind’s long-term
growth, driven by efforts to reduce air pollution. The technology is
particularly attractive in China because offshore wind farms can be
built near the major population centres spread around the east and south
of the country. By around 2025, China is likely to have the largest
offshore wind fleet of any country, overtaking the United Kingdom.
China’s offshore wind capacity is set to rise from 4 gigawatts today to
110 gigawatts by 2040. Policies designed to meet global sustainable
energy goals could push that even higher to above 170 gigawatts.
The United States has good offshore wind resources in the northeast
of the country and near demand centres along the densely populated east
coast, offering a way to help diversify the country’s power mix.
Floating foundations would expand the possibilities for harnessing wind
resources off the west coast.
“In the past decade, two major areas of technological innovation
have been game-changers in the energy system by substantially driving
down costs: the shale revolution and the rise of solar PV,” said Dr
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “And offshore wind has the
potential to join their ranks in terms of steep cost reduction.”
Dr Birol launched this special report today in Copenhagen, Denmark –
the birthplace of offshore wind – alongside the Danish Minister for
Climate, Energy and Utilities, Dan Jørgensen.
The huge promise of offshore wind is underscored by the development
of floating turbines that could be deployed further out at sea. In
theory, they could enable offshore wind to meet the entire electricity
demand of several key electricity markets several times over, including
Europe, the United States and Japan.
“Offshore wind currently provides just 0.3% of global power
generation, but its potential is vast,” Dr Birol said. “More and more of
that potential is coming within reach, but much work remains to be done
by governments and industry for it to become a mainstay of clean energy
transitions.”
Governments and regulators can clear the path ahead for offshore
wind’s development by providing the long-term vision that will encourage
industry and investors to undertake the major investments required to
develop offshore wind projects and link them to power grids on land.
That includes careful market design, ensuring low-cost financing and
regulations that recognise that the development of onshore grid
infrastructure is essential to the efficient integration of power
production from offshore wind.
Industry needs to continue the rapid development of the technology
so that wind turbines keep growing in size and power capacity, which in
turn delivers the major performance and cost reductions that enables
offshore wind to become more competitive with gas-fired power and
onshore wind.
What’s more, huge business opportunities exist for oil and gas
sector companies to draw on their offshore expertise. An estimated 40%
of the lifetime costs of an offshore wind project, including
construction and maintenance, have significant synergies with the
offshore oil and gas sector. That translates into a market opportunity
of USD 400 billion or more in Europe and China over the next two
decades.
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About the IEA: The International
Energy Agency, the global energy authority, was founded in 1974 to help
its member countries co-ordinate a collective response to major oil
supply disruptions. Its mission has evolved and rests today on three
main pillars: working to ensure global energy security; expanding energy
cooperation and dialogue around the world; and promoting an
environmentally sustainable energy future.
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