Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain
broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in
major Asian markets, according to Coal 2019, the IEA's latest market
analysis and forecast.
It is too soon to say whether the expected global decrease in coal
power generation this year will be the start of a lasting trend -
renewable sources are forecast to supply a major portion of the increase
in global electricity demand over the next five years while electricity
generation from coal will rise only marginally over the same period.
However, coal remains by far the single largest source of power supply
worldwide.
"Wind and solar PV are growing rapidly in many parts of the
world. With investment in new plants drying up, coal power capacity
outside Asia is clearly declining and will continue to do so in the
coming years," said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy
Markets and Security, who launched the report in Johannesburg alongside
Gwede Mantashe, South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Energy Resources.
"But this is not the end of coal, since demand continues to expand in Asia," Mr Sadamori added. "The
region’s share of global coal power generation has climbed from just
over 20% in 1990 to almost 80% in 2019, meaning coal’s fate is
increasingly tied to decisions made in Asian capitals."
Learn more by reading our press release, or the Coal 2019 executive summary.
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Technology improvements must accelerate to tackle emissions
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A new phase of technology-driven transformation is emerging in the
energy sector, propelled by advances in digital technologies, mass
manufacturing and environmental awareness. However, the breadth and pace
of these changes are not yet enough to reach sustainability goals. In
many cases, the pace of technology improvement needs to increase sharply
to improve competitiveness, reduce transition costs and tackle
so-called hard-to-abate emissions in a timely manner.
For established technologies with high potential for improvement,
there is a need to accelerate market uptake and improve performance and
costs, for example by incentivising better or cheaper components and
designs. For technologies that have not yet been commercialised, such as
steel smelting with integrated CCUS and low-carbon cement production, a
different set of policies will be needed.
Designing and implementing such strategies and policies benefits
from long-term vision combined with market support for clean energy
solutions. Governments in particular have a unique opportunity to set
the direction of the research agenda through smart policies and funding,
for example by redirecting CO2 pricing revenues to clean energy
research grants, loans and other instruments.
Read more in “Accelerating clean energy innovation means tailoring R&D policy to technology scale and risk” by IEA Analyst Simon Bennett.
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Energy efficiency means more comfortable lives and lower energy bills, but improvements have slowed in recent years
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Energy efficiency must be at the forefront of global policy-making
in order to meet long term climate goals. And yet we are headed in the
opposite direction. What we are actually witnessing is an alarming
slowdown in global efficiency progress. In fact, last year saw the
slowest improvement rate this decade.
What can we do today to change course? The International Energy Agency has made energy efficiency a top strategic priority. Two weeks ago, the Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency met for the first time at the IEA headquarters in Paris. Ministers, business leaders and thought leaders from around the world came together to discuss how to accelerate global progress on energy efficiency.
Read more from Brian Motherway, the IEA head of energy efficiency,
on how to scale up and speed up action on all fronts to see more
efficient technologies deployed and more efficient behaviours take hold in his latest commentary.
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ENERGY SNAPSHOT
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Annual change in global coal power generation and breakdown, 2001-2019
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In the United States, coal generation is plummeting, following a
big wave of coal plant retirements in 2018. The industry is facing
fierce pressure from the continued expansion of electricity generation
from renewables like solar PV and wind, as well as from cheap and
abundant natural gas supplies.
In the European Union, low natural gas prices and increased carbon
prices have led to a massive shift from coal to gas in the power sector.
In some cases, gas plants have even replaced lignite-fired power
generation, the cheapest coal-based electricity in Europe. As a result,
coal power generation in the European Union is expected to experience
its biggest ever decline this year.
In Asia, the picture is very different. Coal power generation
continues to rise in the region, driven by economic growth, an
increasing population and an expanding middle class using electrical
appliances.
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