Ending the limited quarantine and falsely proclaiming China safe
for visitors and business travelers will only re-introduce the virus to
workplaces and infect foreigners.
China faces an inescapably fatal dilemma: to
save its economy from collapse, China's leadership must end the
quarantines soon and declare China "safe for travel and open for
business" to the rest of the world.
But since 5+ million people left Wuhan to go home for New Years, dispersing throughout China, the virus has likely spread to small cities, towns and remote villages with few if any coronavirus test kits and
few medical facilities to administer the tests multiple times to
confirm the diagnosis. (It can take multiple tests to confirm the
diagnosis, as the first test can be positive and the second test
negative.)
As a result, Chinese authorities cannot possibly know how many people already have the virus in small-town / rural China or
how many asymptomatic carriers caught the virus from people who left
Wuhan. They also cannot possibly know how many people with symptoms are
avoiding the official dragnet by hiding at home.
No data doesn't mean no virus.
If
the virus has already been dispersed throughout China by asymptomatic
carriers who left Wuhan without realizing they were infected with the
pathogen, then regardless of whatever official assurances may be
announced in the coming days/weeks, it won't be safe for foreigners to
travel in China nor will it be safe for Chinese workers to return to
factories, markets, etc.
But if China doesn't "open for business" with unrestricted travel soon, its economy will suffer calamitous declines as
fragile mountains of debt and leverage collapse and supply chain
disruptions push global corporations to find permanent alternatives
elsewhere.
Here's the fatal dilemma: maintaining the
quarantine long enough to truly contain it (which requires extending it
to the entire country) will be fatal to China's economy.
But
ending the limited quarantine and falsely proclaiming China safe for
visitors and business travelers will only re-introduce the virus to
workplaces and infect foreigners who will return home as asymptomatic carriers, spreading the virus in their home nations.
Falsely
declaring China safe will endanger everyone credulous enough to believe
Chinese officials, and destroy whatever thin shreds of credibility
China may yet have in the global economy and community. That will set
off chains of causality that will destroy China's economy just as surely
as a three-month nationwide quarantine.
Who will be foolish
enough to believe anything Chinese officials proclaim after foreigners
who accepted the false assurances of safety return home with the
coronavirus?
Anyone planning to receive goods via air freight from China might want to digest this report: Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents Endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days.
Air
freight takes 12 to 24 hours, add another few hours for packaging,
handling and last-mile delivery and that leaves 6+ days for the virus to
spread to anyone who touches goods handled by an symptomatic carrier.
Maybe the odds of catching the virus via surfaces are low, but maybe
not. No one knows, including anyone rash enough to claim that the risk
is negligible.
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Courtesy of Charles Hugh Smith at Of Two Minds, also the author of several books (More by Charles Here)
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