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October 9, 2020

The Unintended Consequences of Banning Fracking

 

By John Mark Gray

There has been a lot of talk about banning fracking during this political season, especially by the environmentalists and the Democratic Party. Let me just state for the record that I am apolitical, so I have no agenda to push behind the scenes on this topic. However, there are some really stupid politicians in both parties right now, and if I had to analyze which party had the dumbest politicians, it would be the Democrats hands down. 


 

     I chalk this up to Trump winning the 2016 election, his extreme takeover of the Republican Party spawned an entire extremist reactionary movement in the Democratic Party, which brought some really stupid and incompetent people into office that otherwise would have never been electable. These reactionaries to Trump have moved into many state and local government roles, as well as congress, and have more influence on the national level of the Democratic Party than one would have ever imagined possible. But some of these extremists in the Democratic Party really are dumber than a bag of hammers, and I can only imagine what the subsequent Republican extremist reactionary movement would be in response to these extreme democrats taking total control of the country in the 2020 election.

At any rate, what is the old saying that politics is showbiz for ugly people, I am beginning to think that politics is really the place for stupid, untalented fraudsters who cannot do anything else in this world. This country really gives far too much of a voice and subsequent power to really stupid people who aren’t qualified to manage any small business enterprise, let alone in deciding public policy for the United States of America.

     In theoretical terms, yes you can ban fracking in this country, you can do anything you want if you have enough power, but there are unintended consequences, and in some cases, intended penalties for those actions and choices. And since I realize that none of the dumb politicians have thought things through very carefully on this fracking issue, let me provide certain insights into what some of the consequences would be if we banned fracking in this country.  


 

     Let me start with the inherent contradiction staring Democrats in the face, you want everyone to drive electric vehicles. OK, that’s great, but what fuel source is used to charge those vehicles? Guess what, the cheap natural gas provided through a robust fracking infrastructure is the only reason that electric vehicles are even remotely feasible right now. Remember that natural gas serves as the baseline for electricity prices all things being equal. In other words, just wait until electricity prices quadruple. I can just envision the congressional hearings on the issue for who is to blame regarding the unaffordable electricity prices and the ensuing economic calamity for consumers. Thus, you cannot hold both positions, they are logically at odds with each other. But hey, there are some really brainless people in political offices these days.


 

     But it gets worse for the extreme environmentalists and the democrats because if you ban fracking which is responsible for the recent era of low energy costs that this country has benefited from and definitely helped keep a lid on overall inflation. Not to mention the fact that other oil investments haven’t been made because of the reliance on fracking over the last decade, so the hidden void of non-fracking oil investments and production would be intensely magnified in any fracking ban, and would lead to extreme price shocks in the oil & gas markets. For example, what do you think happens to the price of oil, heating oil, propane, diesel, and the gasoline markets? As a longtime trader in these markets, the price of oil would spike above $200 a barrel, and gasoline prices would be at record highs. This would send the entire US and Global economy into an economic recession. How do you think consumers will react to this untenable inflationary environment? In short, it will not be good. Think in terms of the 1970s on steroids here.

      Do these foolish politicians realize the impact of taking fracking barrels of energy off the market right now? Of course they don’t. These people never think about the unintended consequences regarding their stupid policy ideas and initiatives. They just hold hearings after everything blows up, so they can blame some oil executives or electricity company CEOs for the very thing that their foolish and shortsighted policy decisions caused in the first place. 


 

     There really is no hope for humanity, and this country specifically, if Americans keep electing stupid people to political positions of power. Maybe the next reactionary movement will be that smart people take over the country. I would love a congress full of physicists and philosophers making informed rational decisions on policy issues for this country without regard to political party affiliations. But I don’t hold my breath on this ever happening, given that this political stupidity and nonsense has been going on for over 50 years. Just take a gander at the national debt chart, and the money printing machine that is the US Treasury Department, as these policy manifestations are just symptomatic of the larger problem regarding a broken political system in America. 

Courtesy of John Mark Gray, author of two books - Rockstar GM and Corporate Game Theory. John has an MA in Philosophy and an MBA in Business. He has worked in academia, Fortune 500 companies, consulting and financial markets. He has written many articles and white papers on financial markets and economics. He has a background in Logic & Game Theory and enjoys playing Chess and Poker in his spare time.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the author's own, and do not necessarily reflect those of EconMatters.

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